India's Quick Commerce Market to Reach $57 Billion by 2030, Morgan Stanley Projects

Mumbai, June 3 – India’s quick commerce (QC) market is projected to grow to $57 billion by 2030, a sharp upward revision from the earlier $42 billion estimate, according to a new report by Morgan Stanley. The brokerage attributes this accelerated growth to rapid user adoption and expanding demand beyond major metropolitan areas.

The updated forecast reflects the increasing popularity of 10–30-minute delivery services, now gaining traction in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities. Morgan Stanley also raised its Gross Order Value (GOV) projections for the QC segment by 9–11% for FY26–28, highlighting a faster-than-anticipated scale-up of the ecosystem.

At the center of this transformation is Eternal, formerly known as Zomato, which holds leading positions in both food delivery and quick commerce through Blinkit. The brokerage believes Eternal is “uniquely positioned” to dominate the expanding profit pool, aided by its strong balance sheet and improving unit economics.

 “The quick commerce market is undergoing structural expansion, driven by a broader base of monthly transacting users and deeper city-level penetration,” the report noted.

While the adjusted EBITDA loss margin in QC is expected to peak in Q4 FY25, Morgan Stanley emphasized that the sector remains on a clear path to profitability in the medium term, similar to Eternal’s food delivery playbook.

Industry Growth vs. Sustainability

Despite the optimistic outlook, concerns remain over the long-term sustainability of the quick commerce boom. As highlighted in Blume Ventures' Indus Valley 2025 report, operators may face headwinds including slowing user growth, competition from traditional e-commerce players, and saturation in top-tier markets.

Still, players like Blinkit, Zepto, Swiggy Instamart, and Flipkart Minutes continue to expand aggressively. Most are investing in dark store infrastructure to gain market share in this capital-intensive segment.

Eternal CEO Deepinder Goyal noted earlier this year that QC players are collectively burning ₹5,000 crore per quarter, with Zepto alone accounting for over half the cash burn.

A Motilal Oswal report estimates Blinkit’s market share at 46%, followed by Zepto at 29%, and Swiggy Instamart at 25%, indicating a tightly contested space.

Food Delivery Recovery in Sight?

The Morgan Stanley report also signals early signs of recovery in India’s food delivery market, though the firm kept its GOV estimates unchanged. However, it raised margin forecasts, citing better monetization and improved cost efficiency.

With food delivery penetration still at 14% in India—well below 19–21% in the US and China—the segment has significant room for growth. Eternal’s consistent market share gains reflect strong execution, even as rivals struggle to scale beyond top-tier cities.

Dual-Engine Strategy Fuels Growth

Morgan Stanley argues that Eternal’s leadership in both food delivery and QC creates a formidable dual-engine business model, enabling it to capitalize on shifting consumer behaviors while maintaining operational leverage.

The report identifies sustained QC GOV growth, food delivery margin improvement, and a stable competitive environment as key sector catalysts in the near term. Together, these could support a re-rating of the broader segment, enhancing investor confidence.

As India’s digital consumption deepens and logistical networks improve, quick commerce appears poised to become a cornerstone of the country’s evolving e-commerce landscape—with Eternal leading the charge.